Yesterday we published an analysis of the market’s performance during Obama’s first three years in office compared to other Presidents since 1900.  We then asked Bespoke readers which 2012 Presidential candidate would be the best for the stock market during the next term.  Below are the results.

As shown, 43% said Mitt Romney, 38% said President Obama, and 19% said Newt Gingrich.

viaBespoke Investment Group – Think BIG – The Market Loves Mitt?.

THE ECONOMIST’s Big Mac index is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity: in the long run, exchange rates should adjust to equal the price of a basket of goods and services in different countries. This particular basket holds a McDonald’s Big Mac, whose price around the world we compared with its American average of $4.20. According to burgernomics the Swiss franc is a meaty 62% overvalued. The exchange rate that would equalise the price of a Swiss Big Mac with an American one is SFr1.55 to the dollar; the actual exchange rate is only 0.96. The cheapest burger is found in India, costing just $1.62. Though because Big Macs are not sold in India, we take the price of a Maharaja Mac, which is made with chicken instead of beef. Nonetheless, our index suggests the rupee is 60% undercooked. The euro, which recently fell to a 16-month low against the dollar, is now trading at less than €1.30 to the greenback. The last time we served up our index in July 2011, the euro was 21% overvalued against the dollar, but it is now just 6% overvalued. Other European currencies have also weakened against the dollar since our previous index, notably the Hungarian forint and Czech koruna, which have fallen by 23% and 16% respectively. Six months ago both currencies were close to fair value, but they are now undervalued by 37% and 18%.

viaDaily chart: The Big Mac index | The Economist.

THE world has succeeded in making natural disasters less deadly. Annual death tolls are heavily influenced by outliers, such as Haiti’s earthquake in 2010 (which killed more than 200,000) or the Bangladeshi cyclones in 1970 (300,000). But, adjusted for the Earth’s growing population, the trend in death rates is clearly downward. Economic costs, though, are rising as people and industrial activity cluster in disaster-prone areas such as river deltas and earthquake fault lines. The world’s industrial supply chains were only just recovering from Japan’s earthquake and tsunami in March when a natural disaster severed them again in October. The deluge in Thailand cost $40 billion, the most expensive disaster in the country’s history. J.P. Morgan estimates that it set back global industrial production by 2.5%. Five of the ten costliest, in terms of money rather than lives, were in the past four years. Munich Re, a reinsurer, reckons their economic costs were $378 billion last year, breaking the previous record of $262 billion in 2005 (in constant 2011 dollars). Besides the Japanese and Thai calamities, New Zealand suffered an earthquake, Australia and China floods, and America a cocktail of hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires and floods. Barack Obama issued a record 99 “major disaster declarations” in 2011.

viaDaily chart: Natural disasters | The Economist.

AS MANY rich economies face recession this year, it is interesting to compare how output per person has changed in the world’s big economies since 2007, just before the financial crisis hit. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s forecasts, people in Britain, America, France and Japan will be less well-off in 2012 than they were in 2007. In Britain, real GDP per person will drop by more than 5% compared with its pre-crisis level. Germany and the BRIC countries are doing better. India’s real output per person is forecast to be 34% higher this year than it was in 2007; the increase in China will be over 50%.

viaDaily chart: Winners and losers | The Economist.

MANY commodity prices fell last year as the euro crisis and slowing growth in emerging markets dampened demand. American crude oil, one of the few commodities whose price rose, is now 10% more expensive after a volatile year. Oil prices peaked in April, then dropped back when Libyan supplies came back online and economic prospects improved. The same gloomy outlook helped to boost gold—increasingly seen as safe haven for investors—to record prices. Cooper prices also reached record highs, driven by emerging-market demand, before falling back by the end of the year. Crop prices dropped thanks to bumper harvests for cereals, oils and wheat. Concerns over the supply of orange juice have pushed prices to a record high this week. A destructive fungicide was found in an orange shipment from Brazil, the world’s largest producer of orange juice.

viaFocus: Commodity prices | The Economist.

Sverige skulle få in mindre skatteintäkter totalt om Sverige införde en finansiell transaktionsskatt. Orsaken är att transaktionsskatten har så stora negativa effekter på tillväxten. Det sade finansminister Anders Borg vid en presskonferens efter ekofinmötet på tisdagen……..

viaBorg: ”Tobinskatten skadar tillväxten” | Näringsliv | SvD.

Small Cap gick ner med -2,34% och Stockholmsbörsen gick ner med mer än -9%.

Large Cap gick upp med +7,22% och Stockholmsbörsen gick ner med mer än -9%.

Vill du också få denna unika indikator före alla andra?

De som prenumererar får möjlighet att läsa av temperaturen på börsen innan måndagens börsdag börjar. Normalt skickas den ut 2-3 dagar innan den publiceras här på bloggen. Det du läser nu kunde du alltså fått redan för två till tre dagar sedan. 

Du anmäler dig här. (gratis) 

Bulls 32% (upp 12%)
Neutrala 22% (ned -12%)
Bears 46% (upp 0%)

Svenska och brittiska finansaktörer kommer delvis att beskattas av en föreslagen finansiell transaktionsskatt, även om Sverige och Storbritannien väljer att stå utanför.

viaSverige betalar Tobinskatt även vid nej | Näringsliv | SvD.

Sverige hamnar sämst i Norden när Världsbanken rankar världens länder hur väl de fungerar ur ett företagsperspektiv.

viaSverige är sämst i Norden | Näringsliv | SvD.

Abstract:     

Many authors discovered that simple forms of technical analysis possessed significant forecast power on various market indexes. We show that these results can be replicated on formally selected European indexes, which almost completely eliminates any influence from data-snooping. Implications of these results in terms of market efficiency are also discussed.

Other Evidences of the Predictive Power of Technical Analysis: The Moving Averages Rules on European Indexes by P.J. Detry, Philippe Gregoire :: SSRN.

Vill du också få denna unika indikator och hjälpmedel före alla andra. De som prenumererar får möjlighet att läsa av temperaturen på börsen innan måndagens börsdag börjar. Normalt skickas den ut 2-3 dagar innan den publiceras här på bloggen. Det du läser nu kunde du alltså fått redan för två dagar sedan. 

Du anmäler dig här. (gratis) 

Bulls 21% (ned 9%)
Neutrala 33% (upp 7%)
Bears 46% (upp 3%)

Mer info här.

Orden kommer från ingen mindre än Robert Shiller.

Läs mer här:

”Om jag vore svensk kanske jag skulle sälja mitt hus och köpa en bondgård.”

Vill du också få denna unika indikator och hjälpmedel före alla andra. De som prenumererar får möjlighet att läsa av temperaturen på börsen innan måndagens börsdag börjar. Normalt skickas den ut 2-3 dagar innan den publiceras här på bloggen. Det du läser nu kunde du alltså fått redan för två dagar sedan. 

Du anmäler dig här. (gratis) 

Bulls 30% (upp 4%)
Neutrala 27% (ner -9%)
Bears 43% (upp 5%)

Att investera i konst har varit bättre sex av de tio senaste åren. Under fjolåret hade konstindexet en avkastning på 11 procent och har därmed sprungit om aktiemarknaden för andra året i rad, skriver Financial Times…

viaKonsten slår börsen | Näringsliv | SvD.

Jag har varit dålig med att skriva inlägg på min blogg på senaste tiden. Det beror på att jag är inne i en mycket aktiv arbetsperiod just nu och varken haft tid eller fokus på någonting annat.

Jag hoppas att jag kommer att kunna börja göra lite mer inlägg om ett par veckor igen.

Hoppas alla har haft en underbar julledighet. Det har jag haft!  ;)

di.se – Di.se-läsarna tror på börsen.

If you’ve been trading for a long time, you no doubt have felt like a monstrous, invisible hand sometimes reaches into your trading account and takes out money. It doesn’t seem to matter how many books you buy, how many seminars you attend, or how many hours you spend analyzing price charts, you just can’t seem to prevent that invisible hand from depleting your trading account funds.That brings us to the question, “Why do traders lose?” Or maybe we should ask, ”How do you stop the invisible hand?”…………..

viaMoneyShow.com: Article – 5 Fatal Flaws of New Traders.

Vill du också få denna unika indikator och hjälpmedel före alla andra. De som prenumererar får möjlighet att läsa av temperaturen på börsen innan måndagens börsdag börjar. Normalt skickas den ut 2-3 dagar innan den publiceras här på bloggen. Det du läser nu kunde du alltså fått redan för två dagar sedan. 

Du anmäler dig här. (gratis) 

Bulls 26% (ner -13%)
Neutrala 36% (upp 1%)
Bears 39% (upp 12%)

A number of economists believe the U.S. debt burden, budget problems, recession and lack of growth will soon be the same as those now facing many EU nations. This would mean that America has begun to enter a period of economic stagnation that will last for years. No prediction could be further from the truth……….

viaWhy America’s Financial Future is Far Better Than Europe’s | Fox Business.

Gold is poised to complete its 11th consecutive annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades, on the brink of a bear market. George Soros, the billionaire who two years ago called it the “ultimate asset bubble,” cut 99 percent of his holdings in the first quarter, Securities and Exchange Commission data show. Betty Liu reports on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop.”.

Slumpens portfölj slår index.

I admit it: the commute is awesome, but whether you are leaving the comforts of your investment firm to strike out on your own, or are a home investor looking to make a go of it on a more full-time basis, there are some practical considerations to take into account, and also some potential pitfalls to avoid when it comes to planning your new home-based trading business………..

viaMoneyShow.com: Article – 4 Crucial Tips for Home-Based Traders.

While some traders prefer a standard lot size, trader Jeff White discusses the notion that the intended time frame for the trade should ultimately influence the position size.

Article – How Time Frames Affect Position Size.

Alan Gunn asks:

Why do universities (in the US and Britain only) have endowments, and should they? And why does no one but Henry Hansmann [pdf, eBook version here] write about this question?…………..

viaWhy do universities have endowments? — Marginal Revolution.

Lite lustigt men så är det uppenbarligen om man kikar på diagrammet nedan.

Mer här.

In the past decade, mutual funds poured almost $70 billion into Brazil, Russia, India and China, stocks more than quadrupled gains in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the economies grew four times faster than America’s…………

BRIC Decade Ends as Growth Peaked: Goldman – Bloomberg.

For some inkling of where investment theory is headed, take a look at the debates and forums being hosted by the Norwegian Government Pension Fund. Fund officials are in the midst of an inquiry into why their fund, which invests proceeds from Norway’s vast petroleum exploits, performed so poorly in 2009 and how it should re-orient itself ……..

viaHow risk factors influence the investment strategy of a sovereign wealth fund – Total Return – WSJ.

Given that 2011 has been defined by an uncertain economic outlook and promises by central banks in Canada and the United States to keep interest rates low, it is hardly surprising that dividend-payers have been among the best-performing stocks. The Dogs of the Dow is a good way to illustrate this outperformance……….

Dogs of the Dow prove it

McDonald’s, IBM, Pfizer Pace Dow’s 2011 Performance; ‘Dogs Of Dow’ Are Big Winners

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