- Global Equity Breadth Check: New Lows
Just a quick global equity breadth check here. As a reminder, these breadth models are looking at breadth across countries i.e. the main benchmark stock index for each of the countries we monitor (70 countries in total). Looking at breadth in this fashion for global equities can help flag early warning signs if certain pockets of the globe are coming under pressure, or indeed trigger timing signals when global markets succumb to panic selling and broad capitulation.
- Prepare to Bounce
2018 sure was a great year for the stock market. For almost a month anyway. Since then, not so much. And on the heels of last week’s selloff, a lot of pundits and prognosticators are suggesting more loudly that the Great Bull Run is dead. And maybe they are right. But maybe not.
- Price Drives Sentiment
I love this graphic from @stockcats…
- The rise and fall of bitcoin
The great Sir Isaac Newton may have revolutionized our knowledge of the world but he still had his blind spots. He was sucked into the great mania of his day, the South Sea Bubble (pictured) and lost a lot of money. “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people,” he ruefully reflected. In retrospect, he should have pondered the popular saying that was used to define his law of gravity: “What goes up, must come down.”
- A CBI of 9 & SPX at a 20-day Low
Over the weekend, I decided to run some new studies based on the Quantifiable Edges Capitulative Breadth Indicator (CBI). As I tweeted out near the close, the CBI reached 9 on Friday. Historically, I have viewed 10+ as the level that really gets me excited about a potential bounce. I decided to examine market performance other times the SPX closed at a 20-day low and the CBI reached a level of X of higher. In the study below I hold the market position until the CBI returns to 3 or lower.
- Why everybody should stop blaming Trump and his tariffs for the market retreat
Even the staunchest Donald Trump supporter has to admit (but likely won’t) that he deserves at least some of the backlash dogging him since the election. But with stocks in recovery mode on Monday, it’s worth asking: Are the president and his tariffs really the driving factor in the recent retreat?